Who Will Be the Next Pope? A List of the "Papabile"

 

With the death of Pope Francis, there is much speculation about who will emerge from the College of Cardinals. A popular saying in Vatican circles is that if you “enter a conclave as pope, you leave as a cardinal.” Within 20 days of the pope’s death, a conclave consisting of 120 cardinals out of the 138 who are under age 80 and can vote will gather at the Vatican to pick his replacement. The new pontiff could come from Africa, Italy, or Sri Lanka — possibly even America — but it’s likely that whoever is elected to follow Pope Francis, who died Monday at age 88, will move the Catholic Church back to the ideological center. Here is a list of the "papabile" cardinals who are his possible successors. 

Cardinal Luis Tagle, 67

The outgoing and personable Tagle, from the Philippines, would appear to be Francis’ pick for the first Asian pope. Francis brought the popular archbishop of Manila to Rome to head the Vatican’s missionary evangelization office, serving the needs of the Catholic Church in Asia and Africa. But he may have lost favor after the discovery of alleged “shortcomings” when he headed Vatican charity Caritas International. He has expressed very ‘open’ opinions on issues such as Communion for non-sacramentally married couples and homosexuality, and that universal moral principles may ‘not apply in all situations.’ He is fluent in Tagalog, English and Italian and has a knowledge of French, Korean, Chinese and Latin. He has been called the “Asian Pope Francis” and would likely continue Francis’ more left-leaning stances. Tagle would be on the young side to be elected pope for life, with cardinals perhaps in favor of an older candidate whose papacy would be more limited. Tagle generally prefers to be called by his nickname "Chito" rather than by his clerical title.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70

The Vatican’s Secretary of State Parolin, who is Italian, has some conservative positions, but also backed collaboration between the church and Communist China. He’s rated as having a “high chance” of being elected because of his global diplomatic experience. Parolin is seen as a natural successor to the current pope if cardinal electors wanted a continuity figure, someone expected to pursue many, if not all, of Francis’ radical reforms but in a quieter, subtler, and more diplomatic manner. The last time someone in Parolin's position was elected the pope was in 1939, just as World War II was breaking out. Cardinal Parolin's episcopal motto is "Who shall separate us from the love of Christ?".

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66

Aveline, from France, was reportedly Francis’ “favorite” cardinal to succeed him. He is scholarly and affable, observers say. Italian Vatican watcher Gaetano Masciullo called him a “dangerous contender” for the papacy. He said Aveline “is particularly appreciated” in left-wing ecclesiastical and political camps, and supports “strong decentralization” for the church. Aveline would likely lead the Church in the same direction as Francis but with a lighter, more scholarly and less ideological approach.

Cardinal Willem Jacobus Eijk, 71

A physician and a theologian, Eijk adheres to Catholic doctrine even when it is unpopular. He’s an accomplished administrator and opposes blessings for same-sex couples and “gender therapy.” The Dutch prelate also does not back the ordination of women, a stance that would appeal to conservatives. Eijk also criticized Francis for giving what he called a “completely incomprehensible” response to a German Bishops’ Conference proposal on allowing Protestants to receive the Eucharist. Eijk has become used to sometimes vehement criticism for his unabashed adherence to the Catholic Faith in all its facets. He is seen as solidly orthodox and pro-life, and has a marked devotion to Our Lady.

Cardinal Malcolm Ranjith, 77

Ranjith is archbishop of Colombo, Sri Lanka. His election would elevate an Asian to the papacy and install a man aligned with both the late Pope Benedict XVI and Francis’ concern for the poor and the environment. Pope Benedict XVI appointed him archbishop of Colombo in 2009 and elevated him to cardinal in 2010. Also, he hails from South Asia, where Catholicism is experiencing tremendous growth. Few cardinals have the breadth of experience Ranjith has gained, making him a preferred candidate for those seeking a reliable, traditional, pope in continuity with Benedict. He is fluent in ten languages.

Cardinal Robert Sarah, 79

Traditional and orthodox, Sarah is a former Vatican official from Guinea who has been publicly critical of restrictions on the traditional Latin Mass and the authorization of blessings for same-sex couples. Those statements have made him an outspoken critic of Pope Francis, which endeared him to conservatives. He could be the first African pope since the fifth century. His experience in resisting a Marxist dictatorship is often credited for the cardinal’s sensitivity in knowing when to speak out and when to keep quiet, as well as his fearlessness in defending truths of the Faith.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60

Pizzaballa is Italian and serves as the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. Little is known about Cardinal Pizzaballa’s doctrinal positions partly because he rarely addresses controversial issues. But from what we do know of his words and actions, it is possible to discern a desire to abide by the orthodox traditions and practices of the Church while also remaining open to modernity. He strongly believes in the centrality of Christ in the Eucharist, has a fervent Marian devotion, and is a great believer in the path of sanctification through tribulation in that great crucible of suffering that is the Middle East.

Cardinal Péter Erdő,72

Erdő is the Metropolitan Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, Hungary where he was born. He is a devout Marian as well as a former president of the Council of Bishops Conferences of Europe. He has expressed conservative views, including staunchly opposing allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to receive communion. In 2015 during the European migrant crisis, he said the Church would not take in refugees because it would be akin to human trafficking. An admirer of Pope Paul VI, the cardinal was a favorite of the late Cardinal George Pell who saw the Hungarian cardinal as a highly suitable Successor of Peter, someone who could restore the rule of law in the Vatican after the Francis pontificate.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, 65

Besungu, the Archbishop of Kinshasa. has made headlines for his conservative stances. His papacy would be considered a referendum on Francis’ more progressive one. However, Besungu also brought critics and supporters of Francis together when he led African bishops in rejecting Francis’ document explaining that people in same-sex relationships can be blessed, but did so with Francis’ explicit approval, which he received during an emergency trip to Rome. On matters related to the faith and the Church he can also appear decidedly orthodox: he staunchly defends the family, priestly celibacy, and the Church’s moral teaching, but according to some critics, his thinking can often appear contradictory. 

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69

Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna and president of the Italian bishops conference, elected in 2022, is closely affiliated with the Sant’Egidio Community, a Rome-based Catholic charity that was influential under Francis, particularly in interfaith dialogue. Zuppi was part of Sant’Egidio’s team that negotiated the end of Mozambique’s civil war in the 1990s and was named Francis’ peace envoy for Russia’s war in Ukraine. Francis made him a cardinal in 2019 and made clear he wanted him in charge of Italy’s bishops, a sign of his admiration for the prelate who is known as a “street priest.” He is especially fervent in welcoming homosexuals and homosexual “love,” usually without any injunctions to amendment of life.

Cardinal Anders Arborelius, 75

Arborelius is the Bishop of Stockholm. The first Swedish Catholic bishop since the Protestant Reformation more than 500 years ago, Arborelius was appointed as the Scandinavian country’s first cardinal in 2017. He converted to Catholicism at the age of 20 in the overwhelmingly Protestant country but also home to one of the world’s most secularized societies. A former Carmelite monk, Arborelius is known as a staunch defender of Church doctrine, notably opposed to allowing women to be deacons or blessing same-sex couples. Cardinal Arborelius is a proficient linguist having received a Master’s degree in modern languages at Lund University. He speaks fluent Swedish, English, Spanish, French, German, and Dutch.

Cardinal Charles Maung Bo, 76

Cardinal Charles Maung Bo is the Archbishop of Yangon, Myanmar. In 2015, Pope Francis created and proclaimed Archbishop Bo as Myanmar’s first ever Cardinal. Since then he has played a prominent role in the Church, representing the Pope and his country’s Church in a variety of positions and being appointed member of several Vatican dicasteries. Generous-spirited, pastoral, and compassionate, he loves the arts, and is a playwright. He is not in favor of ordaining women priests, making priestly celibacy optional, and blessings of same-sex couples. As one of the most senior and high-profile cardinals in Asia, Cardinal Bo has gained worldwide respect for his leadership of the Church in Myanmar.

Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco, 82

The profile of the Italian Cardinal Angelo Bagnasco, although no longer an elector (82 years old), seems perfect in case the cardinals decide to opt for a "transitional pope" who nonetheless carries forward a traditional approach and a conservative leadership after the internal divisions within the Church during the years of Francis. He possesses human and spiritual qualities that would make him an authoritative and respected figure.

Cardinal Stephen Brislin, 68

The South African Cardinal Stephen Brislin is a less leading papabile compared to others, but he has said in the past that his election is “technically possible.” Strongly in favor of LGBT inclusion in the Church and the female diaconate, he considers Víctor Manuel Fernández, the current Prefect of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith, a "true giant with great intellect and experience." Under Brislin’s watch, in 2022 the archdiocese published a report as part of the Synod on Synodality which called for a change in the hierarchical structure of the Church; exploration of a woman’s diaconate; expansion of the definition of the family, a revisiting of Humanae Vitae, and LGBTQ+ inclusion.

Cardinal Fernando Filoni, 79

Italian Cardinal Fernando Filoni, although not considered a leading papabili, is highly respected for his wide-ranging diplomatic and curial experience. There are also things that could hinder his chances. He lacks pastoral experience in leading dioceses and is identified with the "old Italian bureaucratic guard." These characteristics, however, might make him the ideal compromise candidate for the College of Cardinals who wish to continue the Church's status quo for the foreseeable future. Cardinal Filoni has gained a reputation as an expert on Chinese affairs and the Middle East.

Cardinal Kurt Koch, 75

Cardinal Kurt has observed that a focus on updating the church could see a "hasty adaptation of the foundations of faith to the spirit of the modern age". He possesses a vast knowledge of the German-speaking Church and the theological challenges it poses, which is very crucial today, given the importance of maintaining the Church's unity in a German context prone to divisions. He is known for his skepticism toward the German Synodal Path, which might engender the sympathy of conservative electors, but he is not a friend of Tradition.

Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça, 59

Cardinal José Tolentino de Mendonça, is considered a compromise candidate for the next conclave. Despite his young age, he was very close to Francis. Cardinals who want a long papacy, certainly heterodox, with an even greater revolutionary impulse than Francis, might find Mendonça the ideal candidate. In a conclave, he is likely to gather votes among his Portuguese and Brazilian confreres, among whom he is said to have great influence. He speaks fluent Portuguese and Italian, and reasonable English, besides the classical languages of ancient Hebrew and Greek, essential to his scholarly work. The cardinal may be a dark horse "papabile" for the present conclave, but it will not be his last.

Cardinal Daniel Fernando Sturla, 65

The Uruguayan Cardinal Daniel Fernando Sturla Berhouet is strongly aligned with the Ratzingerian line. He sees the fight against institutionalized secular culture and the growing spread of a Godless religious sentiment as a challenge for the Church. He often emphasizes the centrality of the Eucharist in the life of faith. He has expressed very harsh judgments against Fiducia supplicans, considering the document "ambiguous, divisive, and confusing." He is skeptical of synodality. Whether the electors would want a second Latin American pope so soon after the turmoil of the first is the question.

Cardinal Marc Ouellet, 80

Canadian Cardinal Marc Ouellet was a strong contender for the papacy during the 2013 conclave, but has seen his status as a leading papabile diminish in recent years. Factors that initially favored him included his vast experience in the Church due to his decade-long leadership of what is now called the Dicastery for Bishops. Considered a "conservative prelate with a modern vision," his commitment to unity and communion within the Church were widely applauded. Ouellet prefers solemn liturgies and wishes them to be about celebrating God, not people. He supported Summorum Pontificum and is accepting of the Extraordinary Form of the Roman Rite. He is devoted to Our Lady and is a deeply spiritual prelate.

Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller, 77

German Cardinal Gerhard Ludwig Müller, former Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, is considered theologically orthodox and firmly supports the teachings of the Second Vatican Council. Müller has taken traditional positions on several issues, opposing the ordination of women to the diaconate and resisting changes to priestly celibacy in the Latin rite. He criticized the German Synodal Path and what he perceives as deviations from the established teachings of the Church. Critical of globalism and the 2030 Agenda, he publicly questioned Francis's actions, while striving to avoid criticism of the Pontiff. As well as his native German, Cardinal Müller speaks Italian, English and Spanish.

Cardinal Mauro Piacenza, 80

Italian Cardinal Mauro Piacenza has demonstrated administrative abilities and a deep spiritual sensitivity, qualities that would make him suitable to lead the Church not only in Italy but globally. A defender of orthodoxy and highly regarded as a spiritual director for priests, although he has not yet publicly spoken about the issue of Traditionis Custodes, it is known that he is strongly opposed to any restrictions on the Tridentine Mass. A lover of doctrinal clarity, he has repeatedly emphasized the beauty and efficacy of the sacrament of Confession as a remedy for individual evils. Particularly relevant is the attention Piacenza pays to the reform of the clergy: he has often emphasized how important it is for priests to be well-formed in doctrine and updated on moral and bioethical issues. 

Cardinal Raymond Burke, 76

The idea of an American pope has long been taboo, given the geopolitical power already wielded by the United States. But Cardinal Raymond Leo Burke, who is beloved by conservatives, could be the first. Staunchly opposed to issues such as female diaconate, same-sex blessings, abolition of priestly celibacy, restriction of the Tridentine Mass, secret agreements with China, communion for remarried divorcees, and the overcoming of Humanae Vitae, his election as pope is unlikely. Recently, he has even expressed support for Donald Trump, which has surely annoyed a substantial portion of bishops and cardinals. Nevertheless, Burke will certainly have a prominent role in coordinating the anti-Francis Party, and this also explains the many attempts in recent years by the late Pope Francis himself to limit and obstruct his influence.

Cardinal Joseph Tobin, 72

Cardinal Tobin has worked in Rome as a senior Vatican official and as leader of his Redemptorist order, a congregation of missionaries working in over 80 countries and with a focus on the poor. His international experience, work in the Vatican and leadership of Catholic communities in Indianapolis and Newark make him a leading US candidate in the forthcoming conclave. The cardinal – who also speaks Spanish, Portuguese, French and Italian – has been a prominent advocate for migrants, once defying former Gov. Mike Pence’s ban on resettling refugees from Syria in Indiana.  is a progressive-thinking prelate who has strongly supported the cause of migrants, advocated for the LGBTQ community, and has a vision for the Church that closely aligns with that of Pope Francis. His election would signal continuity with the late pontiff.

Cardinal Robert Prevost, 69

Prevost, the Prefect of the Vatican Dicastery for Bishops is considered a highly capable and experienced leader, he serves in the vital role as leader of the powerful Vatican office for bishop appointments, assessing candidates and making recommendations to the pope. Born in Chicago, he is a member of the Augustinian religious order – of which he went on to lead as global superior – and spent many years working in Peru. He was later Bishop of Chicalayo, Peru, before being chosen by Francis to lead the Vatican’s bishop office. Ahead of the 2025 Conclave, Cardinal Prevost was being promoted as a possible compromise candidate if leading candidates were unable to obtain enough votes. His lengthy missionary service in Peru allowed him to be seen as a more universal candidate than American which mitigated problems associated with choosing a pope from a superpower in his case. Cardinal Prevost is a member of seven Vatican dicasteries as well as the Commission for the Governance (Governatorato) of Vatican City State, indicating how much Pope Francis trusted the cardinal and valued his administrative abilities.

 

Cardinal Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi, 66

Cardinal Tarcisio Isao Kikuchi is the Archbishop of Tokyo. A Japanese missionary who was elected to lead the church’s charitable arm (Caritas) in 2023, Kikuchi knows the global church and would offer continuity with Francis’ pastoral priorities. Kikuchi spent many years working in Africa, including as a missionary in Ghana and helping refugees fleeing the Rwandan genocide in 1994. Meanwhile he’s taken a prominent role in the Japanese church and is known for his strong anti-nuclear weapons stance. His experience of ministering in different countries could be an advantage among the increasingly globally diverse group of cardinals, while his leadership abilities have been recognized through his election to lead the Japanese bishops’ conference, Caritas and as secretary-general of the Federation of Asian bishops’ conferences.

Cardinal Gérald Cyprien Lacroix, 67

Lacroix is considered an accomplished leader and pastorally sensitive with experience guiding a local church in a country with high rates of secularization. Lacroix’s focus on a missionary church is likely to be seen favorably in a papal election and his leadership skills were recognized by Francis who chose him as a member of the Council of Cardinals, the body which advises the pope on crucial matters. Lacroix faced an allegation of sexual abuse in the 1980s by an unnamed female who was 17 at the time. The cardinal strongly denied the claims, contained in a civil suit action against Quebec archdiocese. A judge, commissioned by the Vatican to investigate found no evidence of misconduct. The allegation could damage Lacroix’s candidacy, but the judge’s finding might be viewed as Lacroix having already been vetted.

Cardinal Pablo Virgilio Siongco David, 66

David, an outspoken voice for justice, he faced death threats and criminal charges in his homeland of the Philippines after preaching against drug war killings during the Rodrigo Duterte presidency. Known as Cardinal “Ambo” (which he likes to pair with “Apu,” meaning “grandfather”), he shares Francis’ vision of the church and says the next pope needs to focus on building a church which is “inclusive” and like a “field hospital” for the wounded. The cardinal is respected by his peers, serving as leader of the Philippine’s bishops’ conference, and in 2024 was elected to sit on a council to discuss major reforms in the Catholic Church. Like Tagle, he would be the first Southeast Asian and Filipino pope. 

Cardinal Michael Czerny, 78

The child of migrants, Czerny was born in Czechoslovakia but grew up in Canada after his parents emigrated there in 1948. He joined the Jesuits in 1963, and his ministry has seen him lead a human rights institute in El Salvador and the African Jesuit Aids Network, which offers support and care for those with HIV/Aids across Africa. In the Vatican, he was Francis’ point man on migrants and was later appointed leader of the Vatican department for promoting human development. Some cardinals may not want another Jesuit pope, but Czerny has strong organizational skills and global experience.

Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero, 72

Cardinal Cristóbal López Romero is the Archbishop of Rabat, Morocco. The Spanish cardinal leads a small church in Morocco which works closely with migrants. He is a member of the Salesian religious order, a group within the church devoted to educating young people, and spent a number of years in Latin America, including a long stint in Paraguay. His time in Morocco has given him expertise in dialogue with Islam and he has emphasized the importance of working with Muslims. López Romero has also been an advocate of the synod reform process begun by Francis. He insists the Catholic Church “is not a Western organization” and his work reflects the contemporary church’s priorities of dialogue and mission.

Cardinal Mario Grech, 68

Cardinal Mario Grech, a former Bishop of Gozo, is a controversial Maltese bishop who has rapidly risen up the hierarchy to head the Vatican secretariat responsible for running Vatican synods. In March, he announced an “Accompaniment Process of the Implementation Phase of the Synod on Synodality” that will culminate in October 2028, not in a synod of bishops but in an “ecclesial assembly” where the “People of God,” made up of roughly equal numbers of bishops, clergy, religious and laypeople, will propose perspectives “for the entire Church.” He would govern the church in-line with Francis.

Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76

Turkson is a well-known figure in the Church's social justice circles. As former head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, he has been vocal on issues such as climate change, poverty and economic justice. As a bishop, he was active in Ghana and the African continent, while his work as a cardinal established a global platform for his apostolic activity. Ready to engage with non-Catholics, Turkson has affirmed the Church’s traditional positions on the priesthood, marriage between a man and a woman, and homosexuality; although his views on the latter loosened during Francis’ time. He would continue the trajectory of Pope Francis while representing a continent where the Faith is growing the fastest.

Cardinal Angelo Scola, 82

Scola, is a long-standing papal contender. He was among the favorites in the 2013 conclave that ultimately elected Pope Francis. Scola, a former Archbishop of Milan, has deep theological roots and appeals to those who support a more centralized and hierarchical Church. He has been near the top of the list of papabili for the last two conclaves, and with administrative, pastoral, and spiritual characteristics such as he possesses, it is no surprise. His traditionalist stance makes him a strong candidate for those looking to pivot away from Francis's reforms, but his age may work against him.